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Im Rahmen unseres Forschungsseminars spricht Arturas Juodis (University of Groningen) zu dem Thema: "Quantifying Noise".

Das folgende Forschungsseminar muss leider abgesagt werden.

Die Veranstaltung findet statt am Dienstag, den 26.11.2019, um 16:00 Uhr in S241 (WiSo-Erweiterungsbau). 


Expectations affect economic decisions, and therefore inaccurate expectations are costly. Expectations can be wrong in ways that are systematic (bias) or unsystematic (noise). We provide a general method for quantifying the noise component. The method is based on the insight that theoretical models of expectation formation predict a factor structure for individual expectations. This insight leads to a widely applicable factor-based measurement procedure. Using data from professional forecasters, we find that noise is large and pervasive. Our findings have implications for forecast combination, macro models with incomplete information, and empirical research using micro data on expectations. 

Alle weiteren Termine des Forschungsseminars finden Sie hier